China’s nuclear force expansion has fundamentally transformed the global strategic environment, according to senior congressional leaders who characterize Beijing’s modernization program as a shift from limited deterrent capabilities to comprehensive nuclear forces designed for strategic competition with the United States. By 2035, China aims to possess the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal, surpassing that of the United States.
Representative Scott DesJarlais, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee, assessed that China’s nuclear modernization has created “a new tripolar environment (U.S., China, Russia, and China) that is less stable and more competitive” than the bipolar strategic framework that characterized the post-Cold War period.
Defense Intelligence Agency analysis confirms that China’s nuclear warhead inventory has surpassed 600 operational weapons. Its missile arsenal includes over 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Taiwan, including advanced hypersonic systems. The PLA Rocket Force has already deployed hypersonic weapons and nuclear-capable H-6N bombers. U.S. intelligence projects that China will field 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and over 1,000 by 2030, with continued expansion expected through at least 2035.
Ultimately, China aims to field an estimated 1,500 nuclear warheads, marking the fastest peacetime nuclear expansion in modern history and underscoring its drive for strategic parity with the United States. This modernization includes both quantitative growth and qualitative upgrades, such as low-yield precision strike systems and multi-megaton intercontinental ballistic missiles, giving China what DIA analysts describe as “a broader range of nuclear response options” than ever before.
